‘Basis trade’ or HODLers: What’s behind the crypto ETF inflow spike?

This is a segment from the Forward Guidance newsletter. To read full editions, subscribe . Crypto investment products notched net inflows of $3.4 billion from April 21-25, a CoinShares report highlighted — the largest influx since December and the third-biggest weekly haul ever. Nearly $3.1 billion went into US spot bitcoin ETFs, according to Farside Investors data . Their Ethereum counterparts got some love too, as the $183 million of net inflows broke an eight-week outflow streak. “We believe concerns over the tariff impact on corporate earnings and the dramatic weakening of the US dollar are the reasons investors have turned towards digital assets, which are being seen as an emerging safe haven,” CoinShares’ James Butterfill noted. The key word is “emerging,” as bitcoin more recently decoupled from tech stocks (at least temporarily). BTC was trading around $94,130 at 2 pm ET — up 10.5% from a week ago. It’s difficult to sort out which type of investors these inflows are coming from. Bloomberg Intelligence’s Eric Balchunas noted the speed at which the bitcoin ETF inflows picked up in an X post , adding: “Prob some is basis trade back in effect, that’s the fast money that tends to come in and out [with] price.” He’s referring to hedge funds seeking to profit from the “basis spread” — the difference between BTC’s futures and spot prices. We do know from Q1 13F filings that hedge funds represent ~37% of the spot bitcoin ETP assets under management (AUM) that is held by professional investors. Outside this pro investor cohort that discloses BTC holdings in filings, however, are individual investors and smaller financial advisors that also represent “a significant portion” of the investment activity we’re seeing, Bitwise research head Ryan Rasmussen told me. “Given that, I’d assume the flows this week were primarily driven by long-term investors and a less meaningful portion was driven by hedge funds deploying the basis trade,” he added. And separately (but ETF-related), two quick clarifications as some XRP product headlines might be misleading readers: First, the proposed XRP funds by ProShares are futures-based offerings, not spot. Also, a ProShares spokesperson told me that while some have reported those going live on Wednesday, the firm has no plans to launch them then. Keep in mind, too, that CME Group isn’t set to introduce XRP futures contracts until May 19. You know we’ll offer any important crypto ETF updates to you when we have them. Get the news in your inbox. Explore Blockworks newsletters: Blockworks Daily : Unpacking crypto and the markets. Empire : Crypto news and analysis to start your day. Forward Guidance : The intersection of crypto, macro and policy. 0xResearch : Alpha directly in your inbox. Lightspeed : All things Solana. The Drop : Apps, games, memes and more. Supply Shock : Bitcoin, bitcoin, bitcoin.